Grand Theft Auto VI isn’t out yet, but it already has a price tag attached to the day it launches. Economists are projecting that the game’s November 19 release could drain roughly $1 billion from the U.S. economy as workers take time off or lose focus at their jobs. Here is what the estimate actually says.
The numbers
Estimates peg the hit at $1 billion in lost productivity in a single day, as many as 1.5 million people call out of work when the game launches November 19. That works out to about a 2% short-term drop in productivity.
Why the date matters
The game hits stores on a Thursday, and while some people might wait until the weekend, others will take Friday off too. It launches for PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X and S, one week before Thanksgiving, and a playthrough can take roughly 80 hours.
Who is expected to skip work?
The estimate assumes many of the absences will come from men aged 18 to 30 and tech workers. Because most are in the 18-to-30 range, the tech industry would be disproportionately affected.
Where the number comes from
The estimate is tied to economist José García Montalvo. A caution is in order. The research’s complete methodology has not been publicly released, so the $1 billion figure should be viewed as an estimate of the possible scale, not an exact government projection. The viral version of the story says “analysts,” but it traces back to one projection.
Real signs that businesses are preparing
- The Wall Street Journal reported the release may cause a temporary “work blackout,” with some companies building the date into end-of-year perks.
- A California auto-parts distributor, Burger Motorsports, warned customers that shipping, customer service and order processing could be affected around the launch, and said several employees had already booked time off.
The flip side: the game’s earnings
The loss is roughly the same size as the money coming in. The $1 billion estimate nearly matches what the game’s publisher, Take-Two Interactive, stands to gain from the release. Analysts expect the game to sell 50 million units at $90 each, and Sensor Tower reports nearly 90% of preorders are for the $99.99 Ultimate Edition.
Will it really hurt the economy?
Probably not in any lasting way. Analysts note the one-day dip is statistically real but unlikely to leave a lasting GDP mark, given its short duration.
A tip for workers and managers (general advice)
If you plan time off for launch day, ask early and use an approved day off. Managers may want to schedule coverage in advance, since many people will have the same idea.
Bottom line
A single video game could create one of the most-discussed sick days in recent memory. The $1 billion figure is an estimate, not a fact, but it shows how big the launch has become.
