With Election Day on November 3, millions of ballots are already in. As of Friday morning, nearly 21 million Americans have cast ballots in the midterm elections, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab. That figure combines voting by mail and in person. NPRNPR
How does it compare?
Early voter turnout is higher than in 2018 and 2022 at the same point. For scale, nearly 122 million people voted in the 2022 midterms in total. NBC’s tracker counts about 21.7 million early votes, with 12.2 million by mail and 9.5 million in person. Millions of Americans have already cast their votes for the midterms, data shows : NPR +2
Where early voting is strong
In Georgia, more than 1 million ballots have been cast, equal to 25.9% of the state’s 2022 turnout, and Virginia is at 25.5%. One expert noted early activity in Maine and Iowa, two states that haven’t been major battlegrounds in recent elections. AxiosNPR
Who is voting early?
ABC News’s analysis found that 71% of early voters are the highest-propensity voters, up from 63% in 2024. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found 36% of Democrats were very enthusiastic about voting, compared with 29% of Republicans. abcnewsabcnews
The warning label
Experts say not to overread it. MIT’s Charles Stewart said a surge in early ballots doesn’t necessarily mean more Americans will vote overall, because many early voters would have voted on Election Day anyway. He said the increase reflects both voter enthusiasm and the money campaigns are spending to encourage early voting. A University of Florida professor said it’s important not to overinterpret early voting data, because it’s often a poor predictor of final results. Early voters also tend to be more politically engaged than the average American. Why surging early voting may not mean higher midterm turnout : NPR +3
Haven’t voted yet?
This is general advice, not from the reports. Check your state’s election office for early voting dates, polling places, and mail-ballot deadlines, because the rules differ by state.
Bottom line
Early voting is running high, but it doesn’t tell us who will win. The final answer comes after November 3.
