The 2028 presidential race is still more than two years away, but the first big numbers are in. Vice President JD Vance leads Secretary of State Marco Rubio by 10 points in an early look at the 2028 Republican presidential primary field, according to a New York Times/Siena University poll released Saturday. denvergazette
The Republican numbers
Vance had 33% and Rubio had 23%. The rest of the field, including Donald Trump Jr., Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Sen. Ted Cruz, each received 1% or less. The remaining 26% said they didn’t know who to back or declined to say. Vance leads Rubio by double digits in early 2028 Republican poll – Denver Gazette +2
How the poll was done
The Times and Siena surveyed 850 likely Republican primary voters from October 12 to 19, as part of a larger poll of 3,494 voters. The margin of sampling error was 1.9 percentage points among the likely electorate and registered voters. The margin of error for the smaller Republican group is larger than that. denvergazette
The Democratic side
The picture looks different. Former Vice President Kamala Harris leads a fragmented field of Democrats in which nearly half of respondents expressed no preference. The poll found 45% of Democratic voters undecided. Newsmaxhoodline
Another poll, a different method
A separate Focaldata survey for the Financial Times gave respondents a list of names, and showed Harris at 30% among Democrats and Vance at 38% among Republicans. The numbers differ because the polls ask the question differently. Newsmax
What the candidates have said
President Trump has repeatedly mentioned both Vance and Rubio as potential successors. Vance has said he has never discussed a run with the president, and Rubio has said he does not plan to run next cycle and would defer to Vance. Trump has described the Republican Party as having a “great bench” of candidates. Neither Vance nor Rubio has declared a campaign. Newsmaxiheart
The caveat
Analysts caution that early preference polls primarily measure name recognition and current standing within each party rather than predict the eventual nominees. One outlet compared this poll with a February survey from a different pollster and concluded Rubio had gained and Vance had slipped. Different polls use different methods, so be careful comparing them. Newsweek
The bigger context
The 2028 questions were part of the final Times/Siena national survey before the midterms, which found Trump’s approval rating among likely voters at 36%, his lowest in a Times/Siena poll. The midterms are on November 3, and results could change the national picture. Newsmax
Bottom line
Vance holds an early lead, but with a quarter of Republicans undecided, no declared candidates, and the midterms days away, 2028 is far from settled.
